Windsor Star - November 14, 2007
By Colin Kenny
The federal government painted a picture of Canada’s military in the Throne on October 16th, and it was quite a sight: rippling muscles everywhere, with even more human growth hormone coming soon:
“Our government will modernize Canada’s military to provide effective surveillance and protection for all of our country, cooperate in the defence of North America, and meet our responsibilities abroad to the United Nations and our allies . . . Rebuilding our capabilities and standing up for our sovereignty have sent a clear message to the world: Canada is back as a credible player on the international stage.”
“Our government believes that focus and action, rather than rhetoric and posturing, are restoring our influence in global affairs . . .”
Sad to say, this is exactly the kind of paltering rhetoric and posturing that both the Liberals and the Conservatives have been using over the past four years to pretend that they are building a Canadian military that’s up to protecting Canadians and their interests at home and abroad.
The Conservatives aren’t doing that any more than the Liberals were. The government is able to project the illusion of Canadian military muscle, simply because after decades of low-profile peacekeeping missions we have very visible troops in Kandahar, fighting and dying.
But Canada’s bold and brave performance in Kandahar is like a façade on one of those old western movie sets. Looks good from the street, but not much inside.
General Rick Hillier’s vision, clearly expressed when he took over as Chief of the Defence Staff in 2005, was that he would make the Canadian military accomplish three things at the same time: serve in Kandahar as replacements for American troops (who appeared to have chased the Taliban out of their home province); maintain capacity in reserve to deploy to a theatre somewhere else (like Darfur, where Mr. Martin wanted to go): and reinvent the Canadian Forces.
The third mandate was essential: after two decades of neglect, the Canadian Forces were hollowed out, without enough personnel or equipment to make a significant contribution to world stability while defending the physical, economic and cultural well-being of Canadians at home.
Two years after Hillier made his ambitious three-pronged commitment, Canada is struggling mightily to make a success out of the Kandahar mission. But that mission has drained the Canadian Forces of any capacity to take on another assignment elsewhere. Moreover, the promised growth and transformation of the Canadian Forces is sputtering along, with no real evidence that it is ever going to produce the kind of military Canada is likely to need in the coming decades.
Two things went wrong for Hillier. First, the Taliban swept back into Kandahar. They weren’t defeated by the Americans. They were hiding in the hills of Pakistan, rebuilding with funds from the poppy fields and young recruits from radical religious schools.
Hillier acknowledges what a setback this was in a book released last week: The Unexpected War, Canada in Kandahar, by Janice Gross Stein and Eugene Land. “Nobody predicted the resurgence of the Taliban,” Hillier told the authors. “It came as a surprise.”
Unfortunately Canadian governments don’t fund the Canadian Forces to deal with surprises, despite the fact that history books are riddled with surprises that have a way of bringing empires to their knees.
This lack of funding is the second thing that has gone wrong for Hillier. There just hasn’t been enough money invested by our governments to ensure a capable military. Nor – despite all the pontificating in the Throne Speech – do the Conservatives have any plans in the works to do that.
The most ambitious of the three spending scenarios laid out in a leaked draft of the Defence Capability Plan would get Canadian defence spending up to $36 billion by 2025. After a painstaking examination of the personnel and equipment needs of the Canadian Forces, the Senate Committee on National Security and Defence calculated that Canada requires a $36 billion budget by 2012 – effective and capable - without bells and whistles.
That’s a 13-year gap. That’s a 13-year risk that the government can continue to understaff the Canadian Forces, and cherry-pick the type of equipment that might be needed to deal with any given threat. and muddle through. This doesn’t quite add up giving the world a clear message that “Canada is back as a credible player on the international stage.”
The military has essentially been told that if it wants to enhance one capability it must make cuts to another, and that there might be a small bump up in spending coming along in the next few years, but that’s it.
This is a recipe for not being ready to deal with surprises.
Example: Gen. Hillier thought tanks would likely be expendable in modern, asymmetrical warfare and replaced with quick and mobile lighter vehicles. After Canadian troops kept getting killed in those lighter vehicles in Kandahar, Canada has been forced to borrow 20 Leopard II tanks from Germany and purchase 100 from the Netherlands. We needed tanks. We didn’t think we did, but surprise, surprise!
Lesson: honourable governments can’t cut corners on military planning. The defence of the state and its citizens is paramount. The Conservatives are getting away with underspending because the Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois are so limp in this area.
But Canadians aren’t getting away with anything. It will be them and their kids who are going to pay when the inevitable surprises of history slap our nation in the face.
Colin Kenny has a long standing interest in National Security and Defence matters. He can be reached via email at kennco@sen.parl.gc.ca